The trends in stock trading are very volatile and consistently fluctuating. If you are interested in investing in this economic jungle, you might find yourself surprised and confused with the differing trends and patterns in the market. And often times, it may be very difficult to find good stocks where you can invest with much ease.

Getting to know the right stocks to gamble your money on is very critical. And in doing so, it is very important that you understand how the company you are giving your investment to makes a substantial amount of money. Unless you have a full grasp on a company’s market, products as well as its competitive strengths and weaknesses, it would be pretty difficult for you to foresee whether or not your investment is profitable.

Get The Right Help

The very first step that you must take is basically to get the right people to help you in making good and lucrative decisions. First of all, find a good broker where you do not only gain a lot of savings from commission fees, but also make sure that you find one that will assure you of your investment’s production.

It also wouldn’t hurt for you to seek advice from experts regarding which stocks would give you good results in the stock market. If you are new to stock trading, this will be very vital. Remember that in order to be good in trading, sufficient experience and skills are needed, but for a beginner, using the knowledge and advice from a more experienced person may be the next best thing.

Try To Check On Investment Ideas

Try taking a trip to the mall and see which type of businesses are doing well in the market. It could also help if you check your own cupboard to see which products consumers like you would most often buy. By doing these things, you can find companies that could not only give you an assurance of success, but ones that you can possibly understand better as well.

Check For Competence

Take note that you should not stop at only understanding companies that you invest in. Make sure that you check on a company’s strength in competing in the business world as well. After all, you may know and believe in the product, but if it will not assure you of profit then your investment will still go down the drain.

A company you invest in must be able to display excellent economics. Having an attractive price for consumers as well as a management that is friendly to shareholders can guarantee good returns for your investment.

Remember that stock trading can be a very good way to earn, but remember that good returns can only come if you are smart in doing business in this confusing field. The market is full of competitors, and many stocks available are not necessarily good ones.

Always do your research on the companies you invest in before making rash decisions. Aside from this, make sure that you adopt the best strategies in the market, and you can do so by getting the right help especially if you are new to trading.

With the ever changing and volatile behavior of the stock market, make sure that you remain smart in your investments. Take the extra mile, and you will realize that all of your efforts will pay off once you get good profits.

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If you have heard fund managers talk about the way they invest, you know a great many employ a top down approach. First, they decide how much of their portfolio to allocate to stocks and how much to allocate to bonds. At this point, they may also decide upon the relative mix of foreign and domestic securities. Next, they decide upon the industries to invest in. It is not until all these decisions have been made that they actually get down to analyzing any particular securitie…
Stock picking, top down, stocks, picking stocks, investing, stock market, value investing, investor
If you have heard fund managers talk about the way they invest, you know a great many employ a top down approach. First, they decide how much of their portfolio to allocate to stocks and how much to allocate to bonds. At this point, they may also decide upon the relative mix of foreign and domestic securities. Next, they decide upon the industries to invest in. It is not until all these decisions have been made that they actually get down to analyzing any particular securities. If you think logically about this approach for but a moment, you will recognize how truly foolish it is.

A stock earnings yield is the inverse of its P/E ratio. So, a stock with a P/E ratio of 25 has an earnings yield of 4%, while a stock with a P/E ratio of 8 has an earnings yield of 12.5%. In this way, a low P/E stock is comparable to a high ?yield bond.

Now, if these low P/E stocks had very unstable earnings or carried a great deal of debt, the spread between the long bond yield and the earnings yield of these stocks might be justified. However, many low P/E stocks actually have more stable earnings than their high multiple kin. Some do employ a great deal of debt. Still, within recent memory, one could find a stock with an earnings yield of 8 ?12%, a dividend yield of 3- 5%, and literally no debt, despite some of the lowest bond yields in half a century. This situation could only come about if investors shopped for their bonds without also considering stocks. This makes about as much sense as shopping for a van without also considering a car or truck.

All investments are ultimately cash to cash operations. As such, they should be judged by a single measure: the discounted value of their future cash flows. For this reason, a top down approach to investing is nonsensical. Starting your search by first deciding upon the form of security or the industry is like a general manager deciding upon a left handed or right handed pitcher before evaluating each individual player. In both cases, the choice is not merely hasty; it false. Even if pitching left handed is inherently more effective, the general manager is not comparing apples and oranges; he comparing pitchers. Whatever inherent advantage or disadvantage exists in a pitcher handedness can be reduced to an ultimate value (e.g., run value). For this reason, a pitcher handedness is merely one factor (among many) to be considered, not a binding choice to be made. The same is true of the form of security. It is neither more necessary nor more logical for an investor to prefer all bonds over all stocks (or all retailers over all banks) than it is for a general manager to prefer all lefties over all righties. You needn’t determine whether stocks or bonds are attractive; you need only determine whether a particular stock or bond is attractive. Likewise, you needn’t determine whether “the market?is undervalued or overvalued; you need only determine that a particular stock is undervalued. If youe convinced it is, buy it ?the market be damned!

Clearly, the most prudent approach to investing is to evaluate each individual security in relation to all others, and only to consider the form of security insofar as it affects each individual evaluation. A top down approach to investing is an unnecessary hindrance. Some very smart investors have imposed it upon themselves and overcome it; but, there is no need for you to do the same.

Penny stocks- an introduction: If you are well aware about penny stocks and want to invest some money in penny stocks, you will be interested to know how to pick penny stocks. You will find a list of many stocks being traded at the website of pink sheets and will be interested to invest in some of the future Microsoft or Wal-Mart. This may happen only if the investor picks a right penny stock otherwise he or she may lose the amount.

Limited information for penny stocks: It is really very difficult to find information on penny stocks, as there are reliable sources with us. First of all the information provided by the company may not be the correct one and suppose if the information provided is correct, it may not be relevant.

For penny stocks we are not sure how to find information about the companies offering penny stocks. These companies have to provide a very little information to Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and get easily listed at pink sheets. These companies are therefore not regulated by SEC, as is the case with companies listed at NASDAQ or NYSE. Furthermore the history of the companies listed at penny stocks is not available. The companies may be bankrupt or new having no experience of business and thus can be highly risky. A new investor should therefore carry out the research about the companies before putting their hard earned money into the market.

The next restriction on penny stocks is the limited liquidity. Sometimes it is difficult to sell the stock, as you may not find the buyer for it. Having very low liquidity, you may have to sell the stock at hefty discount causing you a heavy loss. Sometimes the brokers manipulate the penny stocks in various ways and may cause you sever loss so until and unless you do not understand the basics of stock market avoid investing large amount in penny stocks.

Chances of fraud: As the companies offering penny stocks are not scrutinized or regulated by government agencies or The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), penny stocks are more prone to fraud. Most of the times the companies spread rumors about their financial performance and other related issues and mislead the investors. Many times these companies take the help of media such as newspapers, radio or email and hype about the penny stocks offered by them. You may get several emails (spam) from their agents as well. These companies also pay for some financial consult for recommending their penny stocks to the investors.

Picking the right penny stock: Although the market of penny stock is highly risky, there are good companies also at OTCBB and pink sheets. The actual understanding is needed to identify the good penny stock and a lot of research is needed before putting money in penny stocks.

Summary: Picking of a right penny stock is the key factors for earning and you should ensure yourself that you are picking the right penny stock. Sometimes a little research can help you picking a right penny stock.

Trading in the stock exchange is not a simple matter. It can be very challenging and may require a lot of time, knowledge, skills, and patience. If you do not practice trading in a smart and strategic manner, you will surely end up losing more than what you have bargained for.

Here are some major things that you must do in order to improve your chances in successful stock trading. Let us discuss what these things are and how they can help you in smart trading.

Trade With Money That You Can Manage To Lose

Stock trading can be quite a gamble. Your chances of earning can just about equal to your chances of losing, and in some cases, there are even greater risks of losing more. Money that you will need for survival should never be used in trades.

Because most trading markets can be very unpredictable, make sure that you make use of money that you can afford to lose. It may be too risky to invest money that you will badly need for your daily living or for your future. Always take note of the risks involved and what you are particularly risking in the exchange.

Always Trade In Reasonable Sizes

Some markets in the exchange are able to allow individuals to trade very large amounts of leverage. And so, a lot of people trade in large quantities in order to assure larger profits. However, doing this may also open up the possibility of losing money in such large quantities as well.

It is always wiser to scale your trades in order to lessen risks. Never trade sizes that can wipe you out of all your money. And you would have nothing to lose if you actually start small, and grow your transactions from there.

Identify Market States Before Trading

It is also very vital that you are aware of how the market is doing before you start trading. Take time to find out if trends are going up or down. If the you know whether the market trends are weak or strong then it may become easier for you to make the right decisions in your transactions.

By getting a good picture of the situations in the market, you can easily lay down a plan for conducting a successful trade. Things would become easier for you to foresee what must be done when you have a good idea on what may happen. In this way, you may prevent making a lot of wrong choices.

Set A Time Frame For Trading

Even if the main goal of trading in the market is to merely make a lot of money, planning beforehand when you would like to get out of the game can save you from a lot of risks.

The trading industry is consistently moving, and through the transition of time, prices may evolve. Because of this, there can also be a growing exit price. Although it may be impossible to absolutely determine when you would exactly quit the market, it could be helpful if you at least place your trade in perspective and find out when you would best collect the exit price. Doing this contributes to liquidity in the movements of the market.

Anyone who will lead you to believe that it is easy and it is always a sure thing to make money in stock trading is being untruthful. Remember that this particular market, by nature, is a volatile and consistently moving industry. And so, you must be aware of the different trends as well as formulate a good and strong strategy to weather whatever obstacles may come.

In order to make a successful trade, you must take into account the technical as well as fundamental factors in order to make good and informed decisions. Make sure that you use your knowledge and skills in determining a strategic plan to go about your trades. Achieving success in this industry is not as easy as it may seem, but with a little hard work, you may just get great results.

There’s a lot of hype out there about penny stocks. Internet spam and flashy web sites claim that penny stocks turn your tiny investment into a big, big return. But are penny stocks all that they’re cracked up to be?

Many investors and brokers may claim that investing in penny stocks is a good way to start small and end big. Buying penny stocks means buying low-priced shares of small businesses and companies. Penny stocks are much less “liquid” than other types of stocks, as penny stocks have few shareholders. For some investors, an initial small investment in penny stocks can mean big returns later on.

But penny stocks are considered a high-risk investment. They trade infrequently, meaning that it may be difficult to sell penny stock when desired. There is a chance that, when investing in penny stocks, you will lose your entire investment. For some traders, this type of excitement and risk is simply the name of the game. Others prefer “safer” investments. But the final choice is yours. With penny stocks, can you turn little pennies into big dollars?

Of course it’s possible. With the stock market, anything is possible. Penny stocks are unique in that they are not traded on the big exchanges, rather over-the-counter. Investors who are interested in penny stocks can look for potential investments on Pink Sheets and like documents. Penny stocks are neither approved, nor disapproved, by the SEC. They are legal, but they are risky. They are small investments, for investors who want to make smaller, but potentially more dangerous, investments.

However, some of the claims about penny stocks are true. Shares in penny stocks are very affordably priced, and there is always the hope that this investment will in fact bring in big results. For those who want to get a taste of the stock market, penny stocks may be a good way to start. Learn more about penny stocks, and follow the progress of some penny stocks, to see if this is something you think you’d like to pursue. Don’t take someone else’s word for it, but track the progress of penny stocks for yourself. This is a great way to learn more about not just penny stocks, but the stock market in general. By learning all you can about penny stocks, you set yourself up for future success. The more you know about trading, the better you will probably be at it. If you do want to start with smaller investments, penny stocks can help you make it happen.

Talk with other investors, and your broker if you have one, to find out more about penny stocks. Speaking with other investors is a great way to have questions answers, as well as pick up valuable information and advice. The more your know, the more informed decisions you will make – and this will help you get that big return that you’re looking for. Can you get big dollars from little pennies? There’s only one way to find out.

Day trading is a very controversial endeavor to take on in the stock market industry these days. Many people end up losing so much of their finances through this high-risks trade. And the most common mistake why these people garner such bad results is because they often do not think of the risks involved and only concentrate on making easy money.

What anyone must be familiar with in order to survive this high-stakes industry are the things to look out for. Here are a few things that you need to know about day trading that could help you in making the right decisions about your investments.

You May Lose A Lot Of Money

The very first thing that you need to know about day trading is that you must be prepared to suffer from substantial financial losses. And take in mind that this is not a rare thing to happen among day traders, in fact, a lot of these people, do not even get the chance to earn profit at all.

Therefore if you have limited resources and a have very little experience in making investments or trades, then day trading is certainly not advisable for you. Make sure that you never gamble with money that you cannot afford to lose, such as your budget for daily expenses, mortgages, retirements and so on.

Watch Out For Claims Of Large Profits

One of the main reasons why a lot of people also get scammed in relation to day trading is because of their gullibility towards catchy promises that offer them large profits –most commonly from the Internet. Be wary of any advertisements or claims that try to convince you on how this certain trade can potentially make your rich in a short amount of time.

Also take in mind that most large and successful companies did not make it to the top by taking shortcuts. Most of those who have earned big money through the stock exchange have actually taken more traditional routes in their tactics.

You Need To Be Knowledgeable

Not only does day trading require you to be a wise decision-maker, but most importantly, it also requires you to have a good background on security markets and trading strategies.

To be able to become successful in this endeavor, you have to compete with professional and licensed traders who might have been doing this for a very long time already. Make sure that you invest on your own experience before you attempt on playing this risky game.

You Need To Check With Your State Securities Regulator

If you really are decided on taking part in day trading, one of the most important precautions that you can at least take is to check with your state securities regulator about day trading firms. After all, just like any broker-dealers, such firms must be legally registered with the SEC in order to do business.

At least, through this way, you would be able to determine that the parties you are doing business with are actually legitimate and mostly likely would not scam you.

In conclusion, day trading is a very exploratory strategy. And so, anyone who may not have enough experience and knowledge about the stocks game should not try to gamble without properly preparing him or herself.

This strategy should only be employed by individuals who are sophisticated, well financed and experienced enough to manage complications and bear risks in case the worst-case scenario. And so, if you are thinking about betting on the day trade, make sure that you prepare yourself to be smart in your decisions.

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Why is a value investor writing about an unprofitable internet company? Because value investing is about finding dollars that trade for fifty cents; with a market cap of less than 75% of sales, Overstock.com (OSTK) looks like it may be exactly that.

But isn’t it too risky?

The greatest risk in any investment is the risk of overpaying. So, the real question is: what is Overstock worth? I think it worth at least $1.5 billion. With Overstock market cap currently sitti…
overstock.com, overstock, OSTK, (OSTK), overstock (OSTK), stock, stocks, stock market, investing,
Why is a value investor writing about an unprofitable internet company? Because value investing is about finding dollars that trade for fifty cents; with a market cap of less than 75% of sales, Overstock.com (OSTK) looks like it may be exactly that.

But isn’t it too risky?

The greatest risk in any investment is the risk of overpaying. So, the real question is: what is Overstock worth? I think it worth at least $1.5 billion. With Overstock market cap currently sitting around $500 million, my valuation certainly looks far fetched. But, there only one way to know for sure. Let take apart my argument piece by piece, and see if any of my assumptions are unreasonable.

First Assumption: Over the next five years, Overstock will neither generate truly free cash flow nor consume cash. In other words, its free cash flow margin will average 0%. Cash generation in some years will exactly offset cash consumption in other years. Obviously, this assumption is unreasonable, because there is almost no chance the cash flows will exactly offset.

That not a problem if it turns out Overstock does generate some free cash flow over the next five years. In that case, my assumption simply errs on the side of caution. If, however, it turns out Overstock actually consumes cash over the next five years, there is a problem ?possibly a very big problem. So, which scenario is more likely?

Overstock revenues are growing quickly. Gross margins look solid at 13.3% in 2004 and 14.9% over the last twelve months. Overstock unprofitability is the result of its selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) which have been growing exponentially. Will these expenses continue to grow? Yes, but not as fast as revenues. Over the last twelve months, Overstock spending on cap ex has been 5.6% of sales. That number is an aberration. In the long run, spending on cap ex should not exceed 3% of sales. Considering the business Overstock is in and the expected sales growth, the company will, more likely than not, generate some free cash flow over the next five years. Therefore, the assumption that Overstock will be cash flow neutral over the next five years is not overly optimistic.

Second Assumption: Over the next five years, Overstock sales will grow by 15% annually. Is this an unreasonable assumption? Again, I don’t think it is. Very few industries are expected to grow as fast as eCommerce. Overstock revenue growth in 2003 and 2004 was over 100%. In the past year, that growth has slowed. However, it is still closer to 50% than it is to 15%. Overstock isn’t in a cyclical business. So, there is no reason to believe current sales are abnormally high.

Also, all that spending on advertising is increasing consumers?awareness of Overstock. A review of Overstock traffic data shows it has not only been gaining more visitors; it has also been climbing the ranks of the most popular web sites. While it is a long, long way from the Amazons, Yahoos, and eBays of the world (and will never reach those heights) Overstock is becoming a well known internet destination. This fact was most clearly evident in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Shoppers who visited Overstock during the holiday season obviously know it exists, and may very well return at some other point in the year. Analysts are predicting very high growth rates for Overstock; however, they are also recommending you sell the stock. I don’t put any weight in their estimates. But, for the other reasons given, I believe the assumption that Overstock will grow sales at 15% a year for the next five years is not unreasonable.

Third Assumption: Six to ten years from today, Overstock will have a free cash flow margin of 3%. Ten years from today, Overstock free cash flow margin will rise to 4% and remain at that level. Now, of all the assumptions I’ve made, this one is the most questionable. Sure, Amazon has that kind of free cash flow margin, but Overstock isn’t Amazon, and it never will be Amazon. Overstock gross margins are less than Amazon. In fact, Overstock gross margins are less than Wal ?Mart. However, Overstock fixed costs will eat up a much smaller portion of its sales than is the case over at Wal – Mart.

If you compare Overstock to other online retailers, you will see that if Overstock does experience strong sales growth, a 3% free cash flow margin six years from now is not unreasonable. I assumed Overstock sustainable free cash flow margin will be 4%. There a case to be made that 4% is too high. I won’t make that case, because I don’t believe in it. Remember, that 4% number comes ten years out. That gives Overstock plenty of time to grow sales and thus reduce SG&A as a percentage of sales.

Fourth Assumption: Six to ten years from today, Overstock will be growing sales by 12% a year; eleven to fifteen years from today, Overstock will be growing sales by 8% a year; thereafter, Overstock will grow sales by 4% a year. Let see what this really means. According to these assumptions, Overstock sales will be as follows:

Today: $707 million

2011: $1.59 billion

2016: $2.71 billion

2021: $3.83 billion

2026: $4.66 billion

2031: $5.67 billion

2036: $6.90 billion

Seven billion dollars is not an unreasonable target ?if you have thirty years to achieve it. To put that figure in perspective, Amazon.com currently has sales of about $8 billion. So, even after thirty years, these assumptions don’t lead to Overstock reaching the same size as today Amazon. Don’t forget these numbers assume some inflation. For instance, if inflation averages 3% a year over the next thirty years, Overstock projected $6.90 billion in sales only translates to $2.84 billion in today dollars. So, these assumptions only lead to a fourfold increase in Overstock real sales over a period of thirty years. I think that pretty reasonable.

If you take these four assumptions together, you get a value of $1.5 billion for Overstock. Today, Mr. Market is offering it for $500 million ?that why I’m writing about an unprofitable internet company.

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Your stock trading rules are your money. When you follow your rules you make money. However if you break your own stock trading rules the most likely outcome is that you will lose money.

Once you have a reliable set of stock trading rules it is important to keep them in mind. Here is one discipline that can reap rewards.
stock market trading rules
Your stock trading rules are your money. When you follow your rules you make money. However if you break your own stock trading rules the most likely outcome is that you will lose money.

Once you have a reliable set of stock trading rules it is important to keep them in mind. Here is one discipline that can reap rewards. Read these rules before your day starts and also read the rules when your day ends.

Rule 1: I must follow my rules.

Naturally if you develop a set of rules they are to be followed. It is human nature to want to vary or break rules and it takes discipline to continue to act in accordance with the established rules.

Rule 2: I will never risk more than 3% of my total portfolio on any one stock trade.

There are many old traders. There are many bold traders. But there are never any old bold traders. Protecting your capital base is fundamental to successful stock market trading over time.

Rule 3: I will cut my losses at 5% to 15% when I am wrong without question.

Some traders have an even lower tolerance for loss. The key point here is to have set points (stop loss) within the limits of your tolerance for loss. Stay informed about the performance of you stock and stick to your stop loss point.

Rule 4: Never set price targets.

This is a style that will allow me to get the most out of rising stocks. Simply let the profits run. Realistically, I can never pick tops. Never feel a stock has risen too high too quickly. Be willing to give back a good percentage of profits in the hope of much bigger profits.

The big money is made from trading the really BIG moves that I can occasionally catch.

Rule 5: Master one style.

Keep learning and getting better at this one method of trading. Never jump from one trading style to another. Master one style rather than become average at implementing several styles.

Rule 6: Let price and volume be my guides.

Never listen to any opinion about the stock market or individual stocks you are considering trading or are already trading. Everything is reflected in the price and volume.

Rule 7: Take all valid signals that show up.

Don’t make excuses. If an entry signal shows up you have no excuse not to take it.

Rule 8: Never trade from intra-day data. There is always stock price variation within the course of any trading day. Relying on this data for momentum trading can lead to some wrong decisions.

Rule 9: Take time out.

Successful stock trading isn’t solely about trading. It’s also about emotional strength and physical fitness. Reduce the stress every day by taking time off the computer and working on other areas. A stressful trader will not make it in the long term.

Rule 10: Be an above average trader.

In order to succeed in the stock market you don’t need to do anything exceptional. You simply need to not do what the average trader does. The average trader is inconsistent and undisciplined. Ask yourself every day, “Did I follow my method today?” If your answer is no then you are in trouble and it’s time to recommit yourself to your stock trading rules.

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Investing in penny stocks provides traders with the opportunity to dramatically increase their profits, however, it also provides an equal opportunity to lose your trading capital quickly. These 5 tips will help you lower the risk of one of the riskiest investment vehicles.
penny stocks, stock market, investing
Investing in penny stocks provides traders with the opportunity to dramatically increase their profits, however, it also provides an equal opportunity to lose your trading capital quickly. These 5 tips will help you lower the risk of one of the riskiest investment vehicles.

1. Penny Stocks are a penny for a reason.
While we all dream about investing in the next Microsoft or the next Home Depot, the truth is, the odds of you finding that once in a decade success story are slim. These companies are either starting out and purchased a shell company because it was cheaper than an IPO, or they simply do not have a business plan compelling enough to justify investment banker’s money for an IPO. This doesn’t make them a bad investment, but it should make you be realistic about the kind of company that you are investing in.

2. Trading Volumes
Look for a consistent high volume of shares being traded. Looking at the average volume can be misleading. If ABC trades 1 million shares today, and doesn’t trade for the rest of the week, the daily average will appear to be 200 000 shares. In order to get in and out at an acceptable rate of return, you need consistent volume. Also look at the number of trades per day. Is it 1 insider selling or buying? Liquidity should be the first thing to look at. If there is no volume, you will end up holding “dead money”, where the only way of selling shares is to dump at the bid, which will put more selling pressure, resulting in an even lower sell price.

3. Does the company know how to make a profit?
While its not unusual to see a start up company run at a loss, its important to look at why they are losing money. Is it manageable? Will they have to seek further financing (resulting in dilution of your shares) or will they have to seek a joint partnership that favors the other company?

If your company knows how to make a profit, the company can use that money to grow their business, which increases shareholder value. You have to do some research to find these companies, but when you do, you lower the risk of a loss of your capital, and increase the odds of a much higher return.

4. Have an entry and exit plan – and stick to it.
Penny stocks are volitile. They will quickly move up, and move down just as quickly. Remember, if you buy a stock at $0.10 and sell it at $0.12, that represents a 20% return on your investment. A 2 cent decline leaves you with a 20% loss. Many stocks trade in this range on a daily basis. If your investment capital is $10 000, a 20% loss is a $2000 loss. Do this 5 times and you’re out of money. Keep your stops close. If you get stopped out, move on to the next opportunity. The market is telling you something, and whether you want to admit it or not, its usually best to listen.

If your plan was to sell at $0.12 and it jumps to $0.13, either take the 30% gain, or better still, place your stop at $0.12. Lock in your profits while not capping the upside potential.

5. How did you find out about the stock?
Most people find out about penny stocks through a mailing list. There are many excellent penny stock newsletters, however, there are just as many who are pumping and dumping. They, along with insiders, will load up on shares, then begin to pump the company to unsuspecting newsletter subscribers. These subscribers buy while insiders are selling. Guess who wins here.

Not all newsletters are bad. Having worked in the industry for the last 8 years, I have seen my share of unscrupulous companies and promoters. Some are paid in shares, sometimes in restricted shares (an agreement whereby the shares cannot be sold for a predetermined period of time), others in cash.

How to spot the good companies from the bad? Simply subscribe, and track the investments. Was there a legitimate opportunity to make money? Do they have a track record of providing subscribers with great opportunities? You’ll start to notice quickly if you have subscribed to a good newsletter or not.

One other tip I would offer to you is not to invest more than 20% of your overall portfolio in penny stocks. You are investing to make money and preserve capital to fight another battle. If you put too much of your capital at risk, you increase the odds of losing your capital. If that 20% grows, you’ll have more than enough money to make a healthy rate of return. Penny stocks are risky to begin with, why put your money more at risk?

409
Articles takes a look at Microsoft and how you can play the stock with options.
stocks,investing,trading,options,technical analysis,george leong,money,finance,small cap stocks
Bill Gates is super rich but his once high-flying software company has been in the doldrums since mid-2002 after falling from the $35 level. The problem with Microsoft (MSFT) has been its failure to grow both its revenues and earnings at the superlative rates the company once enjoyed.

Any company the size of Microsoft, with a market-cap of $242 billion, will find growth an issue because of its size. But this is not to say the stock is dead. Far from it, Microsoft remains a viable long-term software company and is cash rich with $34 billion or $3.28 per share in cash. This gives the stock plenty of financial flexibility to develop or buy growth technologies. Microsoft just announced it would spend $1.1 billion in R&D at its MSN Internet unit in the FY07. And according to the Wall Street Journal, Microsoft is exploring the possibility of taking a stake in Internet media company Yahoo (YHOO) to take on Internet advertising behemoth Google (GOOG).

But with an estimated five-year earnings growth rate of a pitiful 12%, the company has its work cut out for it. Trading at 16.30x its estimated FY07 EPS of $1.44, the stock is not expensive but appears to be priced not as a growth stock.

Its PEG on the surface of 1.51 is not cheap, but if you discount in the cash of $3.28 per share, the estimated PEG falls to around 1,0, a decent valuation. Also, if Microsoft can improve on its estimated 12% growth rate, the PEG would decline further.

The fact is Microsoft at the current price deserves a look. If you want to play the stock but don’t want to shell out the $2,347 for a 100-share block, you may want to take a look at the long-term options, also known as LEAPS. For instance, the in-the-money January 2008 $22.50 Microsoft Call LEAPS not set to expire until January 18, 2008 currently costs $380 a contract (100 shares).

This means you risk a total of $380 for the chance to participate in the potential upside of 100 shares of Microsoft over the next 20 months. The breakeven price is $26.30. If Microsoft breaks $26.30, you would begin to make money on your LEAPS. Conversely, if Microsoft fails to do anything, your maximum risk is $380 on the initial option play.

Warning: The aforementioned example is for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as an actual option strategy. Due to the higher risk inherent in options, I recommend you speak with an investment professional before deciding to employ any strategy involving options.