How To Evaluate a Good Stock Market Timing System

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How to evaluate a good stock market timing system to enhance your investment returns.
stock market timing, timing the market, market timing, investment
Copyright 2006 Equitrend, Inc.

No matter what investment discipline you use, there are three important variables for measuring your success – peak-to-valley drawdown, beta, reward/risk ratio. The first and most important factor is your measure of risk. Performance volatility is a measure of the variability of an investment’s rate of return.

Specifically, it is the standard deviation of the sample set of monthly returns that have been observed for the investment over the interval being considered. A simple way to measure a good stock market timing system is to calculate the largest peak-to-valley drawdown that has or would have occurred in the last five years. This drawdown is your measure of risk.

Second, is your beta to the overall market. Beta is an important variable that measures portfolio or timing system volatility as compared to an index. Most Betas are calculated based on the S&P 500 index. A beta of one tells you that the system has the same volatility (i.e. risk) as the S&P 500 index. A beta of two tells you that the system has twice the volatility as the S&P 500 index.

By actively managing your money, your stock market timing system should allow you to reduce the beta of your portfolio as compared to the index you are trading and substantially improve your returns over time.

Third, is your reward/risk ratio, which calculates your reward as compared to your risk. In order to calculate this, you need to know your average rate of return. A rule of thumb is that your return should be at least twice as large as your risk. For example, if your largest peak-to-valley drawdown percentage over the last five years is 15%, your average rate of return should be at least 30%. In other words, your reward/risk ratio (30%/15% = 2) should be 2 or greater.

The best stock market timing system for you will depend a lot on your personality, specifically your tolerance for risk. You might think a trend timing system that averages 80% is a great system, but what if I told you that system had a risk potential of 35%?

Most people cannot tolerate a system that decreases their investment capital more than 20%. Your tolerance and ability to accept risk should help you identify a stock market timing system that right for you.

There are only a few systems available that really work. Most come and go like mayflies on a warm summer day. When evaluating a timing system, it important to consider all of the above factors plus whether or not the system has survived and prospered over at least a five year period. If they’ve made it through the last five to six years, you’ve likely found a good stock market timing system.

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Stock Trading Software: How Does It Help You?

Owning a very good stock trading software can be a very handy tool for faster and easier transactions in the stock exchange. After all, it is a great way to analyze the market with the use of an online software that is capable of calculating important indexes as well as giving you a preview on which shares you should consider trading.

A stock trading software is basically a computer program that allows you a certain degree of access to the stock market of any part of the world. This program has the ability to analyze movements within international markets.

Traders often use this kind of software to perform both buying and selling in the stock exchange. It also offers investors various benefits that can help them in successfully engaging in the stock market. Here are some of the ways that the software becomes helpful to you:

Time Saving

One of the major benefits in using stock trading software is that it saves you a lot of time. After all, time is a very essential factor in stock trading for you to be able to make the best deals.

Through the use of this program, you can forego with having to spend so long in trying to interpret data on your stocks through newspaper reports or online stock pages. Through a single click of the mouse, the software can download the necessary information and will process all the data for you so you can make your decisions faster.

Objective Guidance

Another great benefit for using this software is that it can give you great trading advice, especially if you are a beginner. Because the program is not biased upon emotions in presenting its opinions to you, a more objective and truthful judgment on which stocks will be best to invest on can be delivered. And so, there is a better chance that you will be guided to making a better and unbiased decision.

More Control

Using a stock trading software also gives you more access and control to your own accounts. Instead of relying too much on brokers to negotiate deals for you, you are now empowered to handle a lot of the work yourself, and you can even constantly check on how your investments are doing in the market. This way, you can monitor your stocks more effectively.

Broadening Of Your Portfolio

Finally, the use of trading software can also allow you to make international trades easier and this may broaden your portfolio. Because the program is based on information technology and a vast online network, it would be easier for you to make global transactions without having to leave your own home. This can pave way to broaden your stock portfolio and even make it more secure.

Indeed, the use of trading software is a great way to maximize what modern technology has to offer and incorporate it in making profit. By saving you a lot of time, giving you more objective advice, empowering you to have more control and broadening your portfolio, this program has proven its usefulness for anyone interested in engaging into stock exchange.

And so, if you are interested on making your stock transactions faster and easier, or if you are merely new to the market and would want very good assistance in your decisions, then you can never go wrong by investing on a good stock trading software.

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