Volatility, So What?

339

There are ways to beat the expectation game and reduce volatility to your portfolio. You do not have to wait for the press release and wait nervously whether your company beat or miss expectation. One way is to buy company with a modest expectation.

Finance Investing Web Directory Article Submission Link Popularity

Earning Season is always volatile to stock prices. Traders jerk in and out depending on the outcome of the report. For example, Texas Instrument (TXN) reported that its third quarter earning of 2005 rising 12% year over year. And yet, TXN fell after hour due to weak forecast. The game now is the expectation game. If the company beats, share price normally rise. If it doesn’t, share price plunge.

There are ways to beat the expectation game and reduce volatility to your portfolio. You do not have to wait for the press release and wait nervously whether your company beat or miss expectation. One way is to buy company with a modest expectation. The definition of modest varies among individuals but to me, modest expectation has a forward P/E ratio of less than 10. What happens when a company with modest expectation miss expectation? While, share price may get clobbered, I don’t think it will move much. Why? Because P/E of 10 already incorporates a 0% EPS growth. Even if EPS stays constant for the next ten years, company with P/E of 10 will return its shareholder roughly 10% a year.

Another way is to pick company that has predictable cash flow and dividend payment. Investors hate uncertainty. Companies that pay dividends eliminate some of that uncertainty. For example, a stock has a 4% dividend yield and it misses expectation for the quarter. The stock might tumble, pushing the dividend yield up to 4.2 or 4.5 %. By then, a lot of value investors will be interested in owning the stock and the drop in stock price will be less severe.

Finally, the last way to reduce volatility is to pick up companies with cash rich balance sheet. Some companies may have cash up to half of their market capitalization. For example, OmniVision Technologies Inc. (OVTI) has a market capitalization of $ 720 M. It has $ 300M in net cash, about 41.6% of market cap. With $ 300 M in cash cushion, it is hard to imagine the company to have market capitalization below $ 300 M. It is possible, but it is uncommon.

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Upside potential with convertible bonds

422

Convertible bonds are bonds issued by corporations that are backed by the corporations’ assets. In case of default, the bondholders have a legal claim on those assets. Convertible bonds are unique from other bonds or debt instruments because they give the holder of the bond the right, but not the obligation, to convert the bond into a predetermined number of shares of the issuing company.

convertible bonds, bonds, bonds trading

Convertible bonds are bonds issued by corporations that are backed by the corporations’ assets. In case of default, the bondholders have a legal claim on those assets. Convertible bonds are unique from other bonds or debt instruments because they give the holder of the bond the right, but not the obligation, to convert the bond into a predetermined number of shares of the issuing company. Therefore, the bonds combine the features of a bond with an “equity kicker” – if the stock price of the firm goes up the bondholder makes a lot of money (more than a traditional bondholder). If the stock price stays the same or declines, they receive interest payments and their principal payment, unlike the stock investor who lost money.

Why are convertible bonds worth considering? Convertible bonds have the potential for higher rates while providing investors with income on a regular basis. Consider the following: 1. Convertible bonds offer regular interest payments, like regular bonds.

2. Downturns in this investment category have not been as dramatic as in other investment categories.

3. If the bond’s underlying stock does decline in value, the minimum value of your investment will be equal to the value of a high yield bond. In short, the downside risk is a lot less than investing in the common stock directly. However, investors who purchase after a significant price appreciation should realize that the bond is “trading-off-the-common” which means they are no longer valued like a bond but rather like a stock. Therefore, the price could fluctuate significantly. The value of the bond is derived from the value of the underlying stock, and thus a decline in the value of the stock will also cause the bond to decline in value until it hits a floor that is the value of a traditional bond without the conversion.

4. If the value of the underlying stock increases, bond investors can convert their bond holdings into stock and participate in the growth of the company.

During the past five years, convertible bonds have generated superior returns compared to more conservative bonds. Convertible bonds have generated higher returns because many companies have improved their financial performance and have their stocks appreciate in value.

Convertible bonds can play an important role in a well-diversified investment portfolio for both conservative and aggressive investors. Many mutual funds will invest a portion of their investments in convertible bonds, but no fund invests solely in convertible bonds. Investors who want to invest directly could consider a convertible bond from some of the largest companies in the world.

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Your Prey for 2006

722

Scouring the 52 week low is normally a good place to start. Tax loss selling has made many stocks to make the list. This is great for us, small investor. Barring any fundamental news, cheap stocks that get cheaper will be a good investment candidate.

Finance, Stock, Investing, Annual Report, Portfolio

As 2005 comes to an end, investors celebrate the coming new year and bring new expectation with it. As investors, we try to sell our losing investment before the year ends and sell our winning investments after the new year. This is to receive the benefit of early tax deduction and deferring our tax liability. Either way, after selling your investment, you have some spare cash to invest. Therefore, you would need some idea on where to invest your money.

Scouring the 52 week low is normally a good place to start. Tax loss selling has made many stocks to make the list. This is great for us, small investor. Barring any fundamental news, cheap stocks that get cheaper will be a good investment candidate. Turnaround investors look for stocks that are touching 52 week low and starts researching them. Many of them bounces, providing investors with outstanding return. Examples for this year include: ATI Technologies Inc. (ATYT, up 39% from the low), Seagate Technology (STX, up 29% from the low), Omnivision Technologies (OVTI, up 68.8% from the low) and even Maxtor Corp. (MXO, up 45% from the low before being acquired). Maxtor is now trading 120% above its 52 week low.

While stocks touching new 52 week low, do not always bounce, this is a good place to start your research. Therefore, your prey for 2006 should at least include companies that has recently touched 52 week low. These are several ideas to get you started for 2006.

Pier One Imports Inc. (PIR). The retail stores specializing on furniture and other decorative accessories, are experiencing customer defection this year. Same store sales has been declining and there is little indication that it will change. Warren Buffett used to own a piece of this company. He has since cut back on his stake late this year. It has recently fallen to $ 8.90 per share from the 52 week high of $ 19.98, a 55 % hair cut.

Shanda Interactive Entertainment (SNDA). For overseas exposure, especially China, Shanda should be on your watch list. It provides online gaming to the Chinese community, especially Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPG). Don’t let the word scare you. It is basically an online gaming portal where it lets gamers fight/play with other gamers. A good way to foster customer’s loyalty is through the interaction with other individuals. Online Gaming provides Shanda with that opportunity. It has fallen to $ 15.00 from its 52 week high of $ 45.40, a 67% hair cut. The appealing thing about Shanda is its strong balance sheet (more cash than long-term debt) and the potential growth of its market. Furthermore, the company is profitable. Those cash pile will continue to grow if that happens.

Navistar International Corp. (NAV). This company makes and distributes commercial trucks and busses. Competitors include Paccar, Volvo and the like. It is sporting a forward P/E of 6 and decent balance sheet. If it can maintain a 0% growth in profits, the stock price won’t trade at $ 28.80 for very long.

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ). The largest baby bells of all are having a decent year on the profit line. However, concerns about competitions and high debt load, has reduced its stock price for year 2005. It is currently trading at $ 30.27 per share with dividend yield of 5.30%. Currently, dividend is about half of its annual profit, which is considered safe. If Verizon can repeat its profit performance, the dividend for 2006 will be safe. However, it currently has a high debt load of $ 34.3 Billion. The company has tried to reduce its debt using its cash flow from operations. On Dec 31st 2002, long term debt stood at $ 44.8 Billion. Therefore, balance sheet has actually improved while stock price goes nowhere.

Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. (FDP). The makers and distributors of fresh fruit produce is not having a good year. Pricing weakness, combined with the higher than expected cost, has decimated its stock price. Recently, management has reportedly hire JP Morgan to run an auction for the company. It can be sold to as high as $ 1.8 Billion according to TheDeal.com. This translates into $ 30.70 per share. FDP recently trade at $ 23.64 per share. If the deal goes through next year, you have the potential of a 29.9% return. However, the fact that management is exploring the buyout, indicates that business aren’t so good at this company. If the deal doesn’t go through, stock price may see further depreciation.

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

How to make money in the stock market

1184
The very basic option trading strategy
options, stocks, shares, call, put, earning, strategies, investment, low risk,naked options spread, bullish, bearish
There are abundant of money in the stock market. However, not everybody can get the money out from there. Some people can gain a lot from the stock market but some has lost a lot of money there. It is very indecisive. Sometime at that moment, you loss money but after a few days, you may earn a profit and sometime is reverse. So, how should we do to get the money out from the stock market? Usually, there are two ways to get the money out from the stock market; that are investing and trading. The difference between trading and investing is trading involves buying and selling share, future or option within a short period of time; whereas investing is buying share, future or option and hold it for quite a long time, usually one year or more before selling it.

What is the difference between share, future and option? What we know is that option is much cheaper than the share and future, usually is tenfold lesser than the share price. So, if you have an amount of money that enough for you to buy 100 units share, you can use that amount of money to buy 1000 units option. And the return of investment is almost the same between share and option. Therefore, you will earn around tenfold if you buy option rather than share or future. However, the disadvantage is that if you lose on that trade, you will lose almost tenfold also. When we trade option, the amount of money that we can profit and lose is almost same as if we trade share. However, we need a lot of money to buy share compared to buy option. This causes the percentage of the profit and loss for buying option is much higher than share. The example is like when you buy $10 for one unit of share and $1 for one unit of option. When the share price drops for $0.10, the percent drop for buying share is 1% but for buying option, the percent loss is 10%. That why the percentage of the profit and loss for buying option is huge compared to buying share even though the share price fluctuates in a small amount.

Due to the high profit and loss when buying option, trading or investing option is just like gambling. It is quite normal that the return of investment is more than 100%. But it is also quite normal that you could lose all your money in the investment or trading. In order that you can earn more than lose, you need to know some basic option trading strategy and technical analysis. Option is different from the share. Option has time value; whereas, share does not have time value. The value of one share will not depreciate due to the passage of the time. It is only affected by the supply and demand and also the company performance. However, option value will depreciate when the time has passed. When the time reaches to the option expiration date, there is no more time value for that option. That why, you need to use strategy to trade option, in order that you can minimize the loss and maximize the profit.

The very basic two option trading strategies are bullish call spread and bearish put spread. Bullish call spread is used when the stock price is anticipated to rise in the coming months; while, bearish put spread is used when the stock price is anticipated to drop in the coming months. Steps that are involved in this strategy are buying in the money option and selling out of the money option. In the money option is the option that has time value and intrinsic value; whereas, out of the money option only has time value. When the stock price moves to the positive side (generated money side), in the money option will generate profit and the out of the money option will cause loss. However, the minus of the profit and the loss is the net profit that has generated from this strategy. When the stock price moves over the out of the money strike price, the profit will become maximized. Continuously moving of the stock price to the positive side will not generate any profit. In this situation, we will close both positions to take the profit out from the market.

If the stock price moves to negative side (opposite side that cause loss), in the money option value will depreciate and the out of the money option will generate profit. However, the profit, which is generated from the out of the money, is limited to the price that you have sold. The subtraction between out of the money profit and in the money loss is a negative value. This is because the profit that is generated from the out of the money option is less than the loss that is caused by in the money option. Out of the money option profit is limited in this strategy and in the money option loss is unlimited. If the stock price continuously moves to the negative side, you may lose all of your capital. So, what is the difference from buying naked option and buying option using spread strategy? The difference is that you may lose more money if you buy naked option and lose less money if you buy spread. This is because you do not generate any profit when you just buy naked option; whereas, profit is generated from the out of the money option if the stock price moves to the negative side. The disadvantage of the spread is that the commission, which is charged by the broker firm, is double compared to the naked option. This is because, naked option only involves one position; whereas, spread involves two positions. Each position will be charged with commission separately.

Besides, the purpose of selling out of the money option in the spread strategy is to minimize the loss of the time value of the in the money option. Actually, both in and out the money option time value would depreciate when the time has passed. Because we do not own the out of the money option; therefore, we can keep the money that we have received from selling that option. When the time value of this out of the money option has depreciated, we used lower price to buy back the option. So, we sell at high price and buy back at low price; therefore, we earn money. The money that we have earned usually is enough to cover the loss of the time value from the in the money option. However, you still lose the intrinsic value of option if the stock price moves to the negative direction.

So, bullish call and bearish put spreads are two of the very basic option trading strategies. However, it is not guaranteed 100 % win from the stock market. You still need to learn to predict the stock price direction accurately using technical, fundamental and news analysis.

Alexander Chong

Author of “Workable Option Trading Strategies?
http://www.makemoneystocks.com/

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Greed And Fear

359
Greed and fear is what makes the markets move.
stock trading,stock investing,stock market,stocks,trading,investing
Greed and fear are the major players in the stock market. These two emotions are the
driving force behind almost all market participants – Institutional mangers, stockbrokers,
Investors, traders and yourself.

You might be saying to yourself that greed and fear will never get in the way of my trading,
but believe it or not they will be. It is not something to be ashamed of. It is something you
have to admit to, come face to face with, If you are to become a successful stock trader or
investor.

What do greed and fear look like in the stock market trading arena?

You have been watching a particular stock for some time now. It has set up perfectly, so you pull the trigger. You bought it at the perfect price and now it is moving higher just as you thought it would.

Now greed steps up to the plate and says to you, this is going to be a rocket ship. So you buy some more shares. Or your stock moves a few points and goes passed the price that you decided to get out. Greed tells you this baby is going higher tomorrow so you hang on.

When stocks make strong moves to the upside greed from all the cumulative market participants joins the move.

Stock prices usually fall faster then they go up, and when this happens, fear now steps up to the plate.

Lets look at the example above, where your stock went through your get out price and you held on because greed was by your side. The next morning the stock price gaps down. Their is heavy selling all morning long. Greed is telling you to hang in there the price will come back. The price keeps going down, now you get a knot in your gut, and your knuckles are turning white. Fear is now by your side, but by now it is to late, your nice profit has turned into a loss.

Everyone goes through this until they have mastered the ugly faces of greed and fear. Master this and you are well on your way to becoming a successful stock trader.

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , , , ,